This week will be bookended with new beginnings: SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index, and another quarterly earnings season will begin with results from Pepsi and Delta. Elon Musk’s space exploration, communication, and AI company is slated to join the Nasdaq 100—a selection of companies that doubles as a shorthand for tech stocks—before the opening bell on Tuesday. Inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will broaden the reach of SpaceX, given that a number of funds are set up to mirror major indexes. SpaceX is already a member of the Russell 1000 and some S&P Dow Jones indices, though not the S&P 500.
SpaceX shares’ early days have been marked by volatility. Its shares finished last week at $162, up from where they first opened on June 12; it has risen past $225, briefly making SpaceX more valuable than Amazon, and dipped as low as $147. Analysts don’t expect the stock to become more stable in the near future. Investors will get a look at how uncertainty—and volatile oil prices—have impacted consumers, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines set to report their latest quarterly results this week. Pepsi announced price cuts this winter as food companies said geopolitical tensions and inflation were prompting consumers to bypass full-price items. Delta described demand as “really great” in March, though the carrier cut capacity and raised prices as the war wore on.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
JPMorgan: “We stay with the view that AI is unlikely to be the only story in town in 2H, in contrast to 2025, and look for broadening in market participation, potentially catalyzed by the fall in oil price to lower levels than consensus believes, and easing in the hawkish tilt by central banks, especially if inflation moves lower, as we expect. Having said that, we think that the latest weakness in SOX and in Korea will be used as an opportunity to add, as the semis upcycle is not peaking anytime soon, and meaningful supply is not likely to arrive before 2028, even as it remains cyclical. We stay fundamentally bearish on AI cannibalization trades, with tactical bounces likely when the group gets oversold, as it was in March. Mag-7 is somewhere in between these two extremes, with earnings and valuation tailwinds, but is likely to see derating continuing on monetization fears.”
MAPFRE Asset Management: “We expect a good second half of the year for the stock markets thanks to the reduction in geopolitical risk, which has reined in the stagflation scenario. There may be fluctuations, but it will be positive in terms of profitability. Although in a more tempered way than in previous quarters.”
Morgan Stanley: “This is simply the next rotation, in our view—semis to the hyperscalers and other broadening trades. Given the momentum unwind is happening in some of the larger companies in the index, it’s unlikely the major averages will trade well in the near term—i.e., the rotation continues in a choppy / weaker equity market overall.”
Evercore: “History shows stocks breathe easier once oil exits the danger zone, with solid gains led by tech and consumer names. The subsiding gusher reinforces that the earnings-driven “AI Revolution” bull market has further to run, as cheaper energy eases recession risk and supports consumption. Energy EPS will suffer, but broad earnings growth remains strong. And despite chatter about froth, the signs of excess remain well short of Dot-Com-era extremes. The main risk lies not in stocks but in rates. A hawkish Warsh Fed, keen to reshape how the Fed measures and communicates, should keep volatility elevated through the summer. Even so, Warsh hikes are unlikely to end the rally, with falling oil buying Warsh time and space.”