Questions about whether the U.S. has reached an enduring resolution with Iran—and what it means for oil—continue to dog investors. Meanwhile, big banks will release results that shed light on how the conflict has impacted the economy following last Friday’s inflation data. Late Saturday night, Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran had failed to reach a peace deal after marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, because Tehran refused to agree not to develop a nuclear weapon. “The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not,” President Donald Trump wrote Sunday morning on Truth Social. “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”

Goldman Sachs is slated to report Monday, followed by JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and Bank of America on Wednesday. Investors will watch for shifts in trading activity, as well as changes in the corporate appetite for mergers and acquisitions and IPOs. Bank executives also often share broad outlooks on the U.S. economy; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently said he is wary of a potential “tipping point.” Financial service firms can also offer perspective on how consumers are faring, including how they are responding to last month’s rise in inflation. (Another perspective on Americans’ financial well-being could come from supermarket chain Albertsons, which reports Tuesday.) Updates on demand for AI are also on the docket. ASML, a chipmaking equipment giant, is slated to release first-quarter results Wednesday, followed by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Thursday. The latter-company pre-reported March revenues last week, signaling continued strong demand for AI chips and related products.

Market Recap
Stocks ended the week higher after markets reacted to the two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran, and the CPI report. For the week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow ended up 4.7%, 3.6%, and 3%, respectively, overshadowing a more restrained Friday session that followed the CPI report. The indexes logged a second-consecutive weekly gain after five weeks in the red.

What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
RBC Capital Markets: “The story that our models tell is that the S&P 500 can stay on a path headed to 7,750 over the course of the next year, supported by a recovery in investor sentiment from deeply bearish levels and a solid earnings growth and economic backdrop that don’t incur too much damage (as a whole) from recent disruption to energy markets and the Middle East.”

Wolfe Research: “After another week of solid market returns on the back of an announced two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, asset prices are set for a volatile open as the U.S. announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Our sense is this action will likely reverse some progress made in equity markets and oil prices over the past several weeks; however, we still think the bottom of 6,343 is in for the S&P 500 and would add to risk exposures on market weakness.”

JPMorgan: “We are likely not yet out of the woods with respect to geopolitics; markets could show more weakness on a renewed escalation, but we stick to the view that if one has a longer time horizon, a timeframe of 3/6/12 months, then one should be using the weakness to buy. Military conflicts inherently display fat tails and drive elevated volatility, but we argued against succumbing to bearish views as the risk of getting whipsawed increases significantly. We looked to buy into the market fall after the initial phase of knee-jerk derisking and position squaring became advanced.”

Morgan Stanley: “The S&P 500 was in the process of carving out a low after hitting and holding the low end of our targeted range of 6300-6500 for this correction.” “With peace talks stalling over the weekend and central banks remaining focused on inflation risk, equity markets may need to back and fill and even retest our targeted range again. That said, our advice is to be ready to add risk into this, because the market waits for no one.”