S&P 500 futures fell early Tuesday to kick off a shortened week of trading, with Wall Street keeping tabs on the U.S.-Iran war as well as rising trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. Futures tied to the broad market index were down by 0.2% ahead of Tuesday’s regular session, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 383 points, or 0.7%. Nasdaq-100 futures were the outlier, gaining 0.2% as chip stocks rose. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Stock futures came under pressure as oil prices rose to six-week highs, rising for a third straight day, after Iran and the U.S. exchanged strikes over the weekend. Brent crude oil futures rose 2.3% to $99.22 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 3.3% to $94.54. Crude prices have surged in the past month as the U.S.-Iran war continues, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields as traders grow worried that elevated energy prices will drive inflation higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield last week climbed to its highest level since November 2023, while the shorter-term 2-year note yield scaled to a January 2025 high. “Brent crude is at a six-week high, with apparent moves toward a deal between Iran and Oman to manage the flow of some shipping through the Strait of Hormuz merely underlining Tehran’s control of the waterway,” Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said in a note on Tuesday morning. “Investors will have a laser focus on US inflation data out later this week to see if the impact of rising energy prices is starting to feed into broader inflationary pressures.” “A run of central bank meetings over the coming weeks will test whether equity composure holds,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “Bond yields are also rising worldwide. The question is whether that reflects better-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and/or looming fiscal debt crises.” The Fed is due to hold a monetary policy meeting next week. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will hike rates by a quarter-percentage point after the meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Those odds could change this week with wholesale and consumer inflation data due Thursday and Friday, respectively. They could also be impacted by another jump in oil prices as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. Traders also have to contend with brewing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada once again. Retaliatory tariffs from Canada on about $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect on Tuesday. President Donald Trump on Monday said ahead of the new duties that Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier can’t sell in the U.S. unless Canada begins making its products in the U.S. Asia-Pacific markets closed in the red on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.58% to end the trading day at 6,954.52, while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 1.25% to 811.88. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% to 65,269.33, while the Topix index was down 1.83% at 4,050.33. Mainland China’s CSI 300 closed 0.36% lower at 4,558.74, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell down 0.38% to 25,317.18. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1% to 8,920.80. Gold prices inched lower on Tuesday, as oil gained and investors hunkered down for key inflation data this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,390.50 per ounce by 0816 GMT, after trading as high as $4,442.70 earlier in the session, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.9% to $4,435.00. “Gold trades cautiously today, caught between Fed rate hike bets and dollar softness. Higher oil prices stoke inflation risks and expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting the precious metal under pressure,” said Nikos Tzabouras, a senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com.
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