Next week will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with U.S. markets closed on Tuesday for Independence Day. The latest updates on the labor market will become available, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and ADP’s National Employment Report scheduled to come out on Thursday. This will set the stage for the latest nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, tracking job growth in June. We’ll also receive PMI readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), while the Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from its latest policy meeting.
The Latest Jobs Reports
The latest updates on the labor market will become available next week. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will issue the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, tracking the number of openings, hires, quits, and separations for the month of May. Job openings are projected to have fallen to 9.9 million last month, from 10.1 million in April. Also on Thursday, payroll provider ADP will release its National Employment Report for June tracking private sector payrolls, which are projected to have risen by 180,000.
The June nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday. Economists project U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs in June, decelerating from a hotter-than-expected gain of 339,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. If job growth exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the Fed’s case for more rate hikes to cool the economy and inflation.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from the latest FOMC meeting held earlier this month, where the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady after hiking them 10 consecutive times since March of last year, in an effort to tame the highest inflation in four decades. Traders are projecting the Fed will resume hiking interest rates at its next policy meeting in July, with an almost 90% probability of a hike by 25 basis points (bps), according to fed funds futures data collected by CME Group.2 This would set the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest in 22 years.