The “reciprocal” tariffs deadline, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and Amazon Prime Day highlight this week’s economic and business calendar. Investors will also be watching for data on consumer credit levels and jobless claims. Delta Air Lines and Conagra Brands lead this week’s corporate earnings. Markets were at highs at the end of last week’s trading, which was shortened by the Independence Day holiday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished Thursday at record highs, while the Dow wasn’t far off its own high-water mark. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a big taxation-and-spending bill into law.
Tariff Deadline, Prime Day, FOMC Meeting Minutes in Spotlight
After a 90-day pause on the elevated “Liberation Day” tariffs, the deadline for the U.S. to negotiate new deals with a host of trading partners comes Wednesday. Tariffs could go back to the levels announced in April for countries that haven’t yet negotiated a deal. President Trump has announced trade deals, including agreements with the U.K. and Vietnam, but several other countries have yet to reach agreements on the import taxes. Trump said he has ended negotiations with Canada. It’s unclear if Trump will reimpose the tariffs or extend the deadline again for countries that haven’t reached a deal.
Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting will give investors insight into how Fed officials are viewing the economy, as central bankers watch economic data as they decide how to set interest-rate policy. Reports on consumer credit levels and jobless claims also will be released this week. Investors will be watching Amazon (AMZN) as it begins its annual “Prime Day” sale on Tuesday. After sales hit an all-time high at last year’s event, Amazon has extended this year’s sale to four days from two.
Corporate earnings reports will trickle in this week, preceding the full start of earnings season the following week. Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings are scheduled for Thursday, following a quarterly sales increase with higher passenger revenue. Slim Jim parent Conagra Brands (CAG) reports on the same day, coming after an underwhelming previous-quarter earnings report that showed sales and profit declined due to supply constraints. Levi Strauss (LEVI) also will deliver its quarterly earnings update the same day, as the company grapples with how to handle tariffs.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
BTIG: “SPX into fresh all-time highs, and as such no natural levels of resistance. Daily RSI is getting extended at 75, but note that overbought in an uptrend is often not an imminent sell signal as RSI got to 82 last July before a final high. If we do see a near-term shakeout, 5975-6k should be decent support. We think mid-July as EPS season approaches could be a spot for a bigger pullback heading into August.”
Capital Economics: “We aren’t minded to revise up our recently eclipsed end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 of 6,250. That’s because there are some lingering risks, including what tack the U.S. administration takes on tariffs next week and the upcoming earnings season, which may shed light on how tariffs are affecting companies’ profits. We are, however, sticking to our view the index will rise to 7,000 by end-2026. For all that, we are more concerned about the S&P 500’s longer-term prospects, as we continue to think that enthusiasm for AI will wane at some point.”
JPMorgan: “We have been OW Growth vs Value style and OW large vs small caps for years, but have in summer ‘24 advised to neutralize Growth OW, given stretched positioning, price relatives and valuations at highs, extreme retail ownership and elevated expectations. Tech fundamentals are staying strong, but AI trade should be broadening. Historically, winners from the technological disruption would not be the incumbents, they were the outsiders. Within Tech, we called last July for the rotation out of previously strongly performing Hardware and Semis and into Software, and reiterate this.”
Evercore ISI: “Of the 6 prior Non-Recession Bear markets since 1960, stocks averaged a further +26% over 18 months after new highs. But a rally does not preclude volatility – drawdowns ranged from -7.5% to -15.1% before a “final peak”. And at 24.5x EPS with Tariff Day July 9 ahead, stocks are at a crossroads – Structural AI Bull Market vs. trading peak catalyzed by upward pressure on global yields even as the labor market changes, Tariffs reappear, and with 7/2024-like Factor Rotation. EVR ISI Strategy maintains core longs in AI leaders in O/P sectors Comm. Svcs., Cons. Disc., and Info. Tech., augmented by a tilt toward Low Valuation/Strong Revision Stocks.”
Wolfe Research: “We continue to remain modestly below consensus for 2026E S&P 500 Operating EPS at $295. Assuming the current NTM P/E multiple of 22x holds, we’d expect fair value for the S&P 500 index level at ~6,500 at year end, representing +3% upside from last Thursday’s close.”