Investors will get a day off this week—but they won’t be able to tune out, with economic data and Washington, D.C., drama among the likely highlights of the coming days. The June jobs report is the biggest of a string of labor market data points expected this week. Investors will also be watching Congress as it works to pass President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” budget bill before his July 4 deadline.

Beer producer Constellation Brands (STZ) is a highlight of a limited corporate earnings calendar. Tesla (TSLA) June deliveries data, expected Wednesday, could also influence markets. Markets will take a break Friday to observe the Independence Day holiday. Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished at record highs, lifted by an upbeat Friday session for stocks.

Jobs Report Comes as Fed Watches for Signs of Labor Market Weakening
Thursday’s scheduled release of June jobs numbers comes as the labor market has remained resilient despite concerns of a hiring slowdown. Employers added more jobs than expected in May, though hiring slowed slightly from the prior month. Economists expect the labor market to slow as companies face uncertainty from tariffs, while a recent consumer survey showed heightened worries about the state of the job market. Federal Reserve officials have pointed to strong job growth as a reason to hold interest rates at current levels, even as inflation has declined. Trump has put pressure on the Fed to cut rates, with some officials now open to the idea. Fresh data from the labor market could give investors more insight into whether rate cuts are coming.

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” will be in the spotlight as the Senate works to pass the budget package ahead of Trump’s deadline. Investors will also be eyeing updates on Trump’s tariff policy ahead of a July 9 deadline to negotiate new deals with U.S. trading partners. (Officials have said the tariff timeline could be delayed.) Trump on Friday said trade talks with Canada were over.

Constellation Brands, the maker of Modelo and Corona beers, is scheduled to report earnings Tuesday, a report due after it trimmed its outlook in the previous quarter. EV maker Tesla is expected to report June deliveries Wednesday, offering a full picture of the first half of the year for its car business. Before closing on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, markets will also close early on Thursday.

What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks

JPMorgan: “The chances are that the upcoming Fed easing will allow the market to look through any potential activity weakness, in a sense invoking the regime of “bad news is good news”. We think the potential market reaction will depend on the context of cuts. We highlight three potential scenarios: first, the Fed is cutting as activity is clearly weakening; second, it is cutting in 2H as no inflation is coming through from implemented tariffs, and as activity is staying resilient; and third, it is cutting despite some inflation pressure showing up, potentially in the background of the U.S. administration pushing for lower rates.”

Morgan Stanley: “Equity markets have been resilient since bottoming in April, and the rally has been more fundamentally-driven than many appreciate. While there could be some consolidation during 3Q, we remain bullish on a 6-12 month horizon as EPS tailwinds expand, and the market has line of sight to Fed cuts.”

Evercore ISI: “It’s not yet the time to “pile in” in anticipation of a FOMO- driven meltup. With SPX at a pricey 24.4x trailing P/E and ahead of 7/4’s OBBB and 7/9’s Tariff deadlines, Patience and Prudence [are] advised. Maintain overweight AI stocks and sectors – Comm. Svcs., Cons. Disc., Info. Tech.”

Yardeni Research: “Though the stock market is back on record-high ground after a couple of big worries have dissipated, investors remain wary, sentiment readings show. Slowing economic activity has ascended to the top of their worry list. True, some key recent economic indicators have come in weaker than expected. But that suggests a soft patch, nothing worse. The recent outperformance of four cyclical sectors associated with our bullish themes supports our long- term optimism on the economy.”