Earnings from artificial intelligence giant Nvidia and retail leaders Walmart, Target, and Home Depot highlight this week’s calendar. Investors will also watch for impacts from the reopening of the government after a 43-day work stoppage, the longest in U.S. history. The shutdown’s end will likely mean a resumption of government economic reports, which have been on hold due to the furlough of workers needed to collect the data. The reports are critical for investors and officials, who use the data to evaluate the direction of the economy. While it’s unclear whether government agencies will return to their normal data-release schedule this week, only a few reports could still be impacted by the shutdown.
Nvidia, Retail Giants Earnings Due
All eyes—or, at least, all investor eyes—will be on Nvidia this week as the world’s most valuable company reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. The AI trade has driven recent market volatility over worries about corporate valuations in that sector. Nvidia posted earnings that narrowly exceeded expectations in its most recent report as the chipmaker reassured investors that demand for AI technology remained strong. Reports from large retailers are on the schedule, led by Walmart’s on Thursday—just days after announcing that John Furner will take over as CEO on Feb. 1, replacing Doug McMillon. The world’s largest retailer‘s share price hit an all-time high in October.
Other key retailers reporting this week include Target, which announced a change in leadership when it last posted quarterly earnings. Home Depot’s report on Tuesday comes as the hardware giant raised its outlook on rising demand for home improvement projects. Competitor Lowe’s Cos. is slated to release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Discount retailers TJX Cos., the parent company of TJ Maxx, and Ross Stores, are also on this week’s calendar.
Housing Data, Consumer Sentiment on Tap
While it’s unclear when government economic data will resume, investors will still have several noteworthy reports to monitor. Several are to do with the housing market. Existing-home sales data for October comes Wednesday amid a freeze in the housing market that has kept sales near decades-low levels for more than two years. Housing starts, which measures new home construction, is also scheduled to be released this week, but it’s unclear if the shutdown will continue to see delays in that government data.
The minutes of the October meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee will provide market watchers with more insight into deliberations behind where to set interest rates, which has some officials divided. Investors will also be watching for the final November report on consumer sentiment, which earlier this month showed that the government shutdown was beginning to make some consumers more nervous about the state of the economy.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
Morgan Stanley: “We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7,800 driven by strong earnings growth. Valuation stays supported as the rolling recovery leads to broadening in leadership. We upgrade small caps to Overweight (OW) relative to large caps. At the sector level, we upgrade Consumer Discretionary Goods and Healthcare to OW.”
JPMorgan: “Encouragingly, earnings delivery has continued to broaden. While Mag7 earnings growth stayed robust at +23% y/y, the spread between Mag7 and S&P 500 excluding Mag7 has narrowed further, with the remaining stocks recording 12% y/y EPS growth, the highest rate since 2022.”
RBC Capital Markets: “If the current period of weakness persists and finally turns into the garden variety pullback we’ve been worried about, our Four Tiers of Fear framework reminds us that a 5-10% drawdown from the recent high in the S&P 500 would take the index into the 6,200-6,550 range.”
“We think a pullback in the 5-10% range in the balance of 2025 is reasonable to expect. If recession fears pick up, a tier 2 or tier 3 decline would be reasonable to anticipate. We think stocks priced in a growth scare in April, but not a recession.”