Big Bank earnings, inflation data, and corporate and economic reports highlight this week’s calendar. Many top financial institutions are scheduled to kick off earnings season in the days ahead, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Reports from Delta Air Lines and Taiwan Semiconductor will also be in the spotlight, showcasing the health of the consumer and the tech sector.

Investors will also be watching December inflation data, along with reports on retail sales, new and existing home sales, and the U.S. budget deficit.

JP Morgan Leads Bank Earnings, TSMC Highlights AI Trade
Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2025 effectively starts Tuesday with the year-end report from JP Morgan Chase, the U.S.’s largest bank, which said last week that it would become the next issuer of the Apple Card. Banks in the prior quarter reported solid results across the board, with analysts saying they were poised to see more improvement to close out the year. Despite the positive results last quarter, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. economy was facing continued uncertainty. Wells Fargo, which said that it could see slower growth in its net interest income for the year, reports Wednesday. The nation’s oldest bank, BNY Mellon, and investment banking giant Goldman Sachs are also reporting.

Taiwan Semiconductor earnings will show whether chipmakers can continue to drive strong revenue growth amid surging demand for artificial intelligence chips. Delta Air Lines earnings will shine a light on travel after airlines experienced disruptions during the government shutdown last year, potentially slowing the recovery after a slow spring.

Inflation Data Comes Amid Interest-Rate Uncertainty
Inflation data is due Tuesday with the release of December’s Consumer Price Index, which showed price pressures slowing to 2.7% in its prior report. A delayed report from October and November on wholesale inflation could further show how pricing changes are impacting the economy. The data will be eyed by Federal Reserve officials, who are divided over whether to cut interest rates at the central bank’s next meeting in late January. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, potentially providing signals regarding the Fed’s direction.
Retail sales data for November will provide insight into the 2025 holiday shopping season, as consumer activity continues to help power the U.S. economy. Delayed new home sales reports for September and October are among the housing-data reports expected as home sales have stalled amid persistent affordability challenges. The budget deficit report will provide an update on tariff collection levels.

What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks

JPMorgan: “We believe that the growth-policy tradeoff will be favourable for equities, at least through 1H of this year. Economic activity is likely to be supported by a relatively easy monetary and fiscal backdrop in the US and EuroArea, while inflation rates are likely to keep moving lower.” “Within our constructive equity outlook, driven by supportive Growth-Inflation tradeoff that we see for 2026, we believe that Cyclical sectors will be the outperformers.”

Goldman Sachs: “The 4Q earnings season will represent another important test for big tech andn the AI trade. The trajectory of AI capex spending established this quarter will have meaningful implications for the earnings outlook and share price performance of AI infrastructure stocks.”

Evercore ISI: “With investors expecting “More” – S&P 500 surprises for YoY EPS growth have averaged 6% over the past year – and with valuations extended, companies will need to surprise “More” to deliver outperformance. “Earnings Exceeders” – companies with strong double beat track records, relatively inexpensive valuations, with a history of outperformance/upward EPS revisions post-earnings results – could outperform even as sentiment toward tech/AI has cooled. “Earnings Underachievers” – companies with weak surprises whose share prices historically fall with weak EPS revisions post earnings – could underperform.”

Morgan Stanley: “The wildcard for this year could be that we see multiple expansion for the median/average stock in addition to strong earnings growth. The reason for these developments, in our view, is that the market is beginning to process the synergies fostered by operating leverage, pricing power, AI adoption, de-regulation, lower rates, lower dollar/oil prices, and several other variables. Stay long Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, small caps, and Healthcare.”