A government shutdown could be imminent unless congressional leaders agree to a series of last-minute spending bills to keep the government running past Sept. 30. We’ll get the latest reports on the jobs market next week, including the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP’s National Employment Report tracking private sector payrolls, and the nonfarm payrolls report for September. Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss will report earnings next week.
Updates on the Jobs Market
We’ll get the latest updates on the labor market next week, starting with the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. On Wednesday, payroll provider ADP will issue its National Employment Report for September, tracking growth in private sector payrolls. This will set the stage for the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes have finally begun to dent the pace of hiring which still remains close to historic highs, amid a surprisingly resilient job market.
A Looming Government Shutdown
With a Congressional deal nowhere in sight, chances are rising that the federal government will run out of money to continue operating past Sept. 30, making a government shutdown imminent. It would be the first shutdown since 2019, impacting millions of government workers, from air traffic controllers to military personnel, who would be furloughed or asked to work without pay. A shutdown could also affect key federal aid programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and cause national parks to close.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that a shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points for every week that it lasts, though growth could bounce back once a deal is reached and the government reopens. Federal pay, which would be severely curtailed in a shutdown, accounts for roughly 2% of U.S. GDP.
Agencies that publish economic data, like the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and U.S. Census Bureau would also shut down, leaving Federal Reserve policymakers without critical data to guide monetary policy decisions ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Oct. 31.