U.S. stock index futures fell slightly on Thursday, while oil prices ticked up as markets waited to see whether a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war would hold amid some signs of strain in the tentative agreement. S&P 500 Futures fell 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.2%, and Dow Jones Futures slipped 0.3%. While the developments in the Middle East continued to dominate headlines, market participants were also focused on a busy economic calendar on Wednesday. The February personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reading will arrive shortly, widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. There will also be another estimate on U.S. GDP data. Futures retreated after a stellar session on Wall Street, where the Dow clocked its best day in a year after Washington and Tehran signaled they had agreed to cease hostilities for two weeks. But Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire remained a point of contention, with Iran alleging ceasefire violations over Israel’s continued attacks on the country. Despite ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon, Iranian negotiators are arriving in Islamabad tonight for “serious talks” with the U.S., which are tentatively scheduled for Saturday morning. Adding to uncertainty over the ceasefire, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday evening that U.S. military forces will remain around Iran until a “real agreement” was reached, and repeated his calls for Iran to cease its nuclear activities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street indexes clocked strong gains on Wednesday following news of the ceasefire, as markets sought an end to nearly six weeks of war in the Middle East. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% to 6,782.96 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.9% to 47,909.92 points in its best day in a year. The NASDAQ Composite surged 2.8% to 22,635.0 points, with technology stocks recouping more of March’s steep losses. Chipmakers outperformed, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging over 6% on gains in majors such as Micron Technology Inc, NVIDIA Corporation, and Intel Corporation. Chipmakers were encouraged by memory chip giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930) forecasting stellar earnings in the first quarter. Beyond the Iran war, markets also parsed somewhat hawkish signals from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, released on Wednesday. The minutes showed policymakers growing increasingly concerned over the spike in oil prices, which could factor into higher inflation and interest rates over the coming months. U.S. Treasury yields showed little movement in on Thursday as investors prepared for several key data releases, which will shed further light on the evolving inflationary backdrop and the outlook for interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the benchmark for government borrowing — was down less than 1 basis point at 4.285%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is typically more sensitive to short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, fell more than 1 basis point to 3.783%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury note yield was less than a basis point lower at 4.882%. Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, after Iran’s parliamentary speaker charged the U.S. of breaching the terms of their two-week ceasefire agreement. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.73% to close at 55,895.32, while the Topix dropped 0.90% to 3,741.47. South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.61% to finish at 5,778.01, while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 1.27% to 1,076.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.64% to 4,566.22 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.71% as of its last hour of trade.
India’s Nifty 50 was 0.89% lower, and the 30-stock index BSE Sensex was down 0.96% as of 4:00 a.m. ET. On Wednesday, the country’s central bank warned that the Iran war had raised inflation worries while also flagging risks to economic growth. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 managed to buck the wider trend, closing 0.24% higher at 8,973.2. Oil prices rose Thursday after Iran accused the U.S of violating elements of a two-week ceasefire agreement, raising concerns that tensions could escalate again and disrupt energy supplies. International benchmark Brent crude futures for June delivery added 4% to $98.54 at 7:39 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May rose 5.3% to $99.41. The moves come a day after U.S. crude oil posted its biggest single-day drop since 2020. Gold edged higher on Thursday, ​with investors assessing a tenuous ​ceasefire between the ​U.S. and Iran as fighting in the Middle East continues, while looking ahead to key U.S. inflation data amid price pressures. Spot gold edged 0.3% higher to $4,728.18 per ounce, as ⁠of ‌0951 GMT, having hit its highest since March ⁠19 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.5% to $4,754.30. “The weaker dollar is giving a bit of an uplift to gold at the moment but with fast news coming out of ‌the Middle East, it does make markets a little bit un-tradeable from an investment perspective,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. The dollar held steady ​after sharp losses in the last session as traders kept their eyes fixed on whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would hold.