Stock futures rose on Monday as Wall Street tried to recover from another losing week, with investors monitoring oil prices and the latest developments from the U.S.-Iran war. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 366 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 futures rose 1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.1%. The moves come after the S&P 500 notched its third losing week in a row and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday. The benchmark index ended the week down 1.6%, while the Dow and Nasdaq shed about 2% and 1.3%, respectively. Oil prices rallied last week, with Brent crude settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Crude soared as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, has been effectively halted since the war began. In early Monday trading, WTI crude traded close to 2% lower at around $96 a barrel. It traded above $100 per barrel overnight. Brent crude traded around the flatline at $103 a barrel. President Donald Trump ordered on Friday strikes on Iran military assets located on Kharg Island. While the attack didn’t impact oil infrastructure, Trump said the U.S. would consider hitting those structures if Iran continues to block the Strait. Trump also told NBC over the weekend that Iran wants to make a deal, but he is not ready yet. Perhaps helping sentiment a bit as the week began was a Wall Street Journal report stating that the U.S. will announce soon a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Monday that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers pass through the Strait. The stock sell-off has been relatively tame despite the geopolitical tensions, however. The S&P 500 remains just 5% below its all-time high set earlier this year. “The apparent resilience in the S&P 500 is attributable to the increasing bullishness of industry analysts’ consensus estimates for earnings per share in 2026 and 2027,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “Apparently, they did not get the memo about the possible negative consequences of a protracted war and closure of the Strait.” Along with oil and the war, investors will keep an eye on Nvidia, as the chipmaker’s GTC conference begins Monday. The Federal Reserve is also set to hold its second monetary policy meeting of the year, though no change to interest rates is expected. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed on Friday as investors weighed the release of dramatically slower, downwardly revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth numbers. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 1 basis point to 4.285%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up more than 2 basis points at 4.91%, and the 2-year Treasury note yield — most sensitive to short-term expectations of Federal Reserve policy moves — slid more than 2 basis points to 3.734%. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as investors assess elevated oil prices and the latest developments in the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.45% to close at 25,834.02, while the CSI 300 was flat at 4,671.56 as China’s consumption and production both beat expectations on holiday spending and strong foreign demand. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.13% to 53,751.15, while South Korea’s Kospi added 1.14% to 5,549.85. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.39% to 8,583.40. Gold prices dipped on Monday, pressured by concerns that surging oil costs could stoke inflation further and prompt a more hawkish policy stance by major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, dulling the appeal of the non-yielding asset. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,976.28 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 1.6% to $4,981.30. “The gold market has moved its focus from looking at the implications of the Hormuz trade closure, and towards implications of longer-term inflation,” said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis. “Higher oil prices mean higher inflation and this has repercussions on the Fed. The Fed could pivot, stop cutting rates and that puts downward pressure on gold prices.”
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