U.S. stock futures moved higher on Monday as investors tracked the latest developments in trade and awaited the start of big tech earnings this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 66 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, along with Nasdaq-100 futures. Trade was once again in focus as the White House reiterated its position on tariffs. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Aug. 1 the “hard deadline” for countries to start paying tariffs, though he also added that “nothing stops countries from talking to us after Aug. 1.” Wall Street is coming off a winning week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which continued to notch all-time highs. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5%. The Dow ended the week slightly lower. The moves come as earnings season is off to a strong start. Of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far, more than 85% have topped expectations, according to FactSet data. Earnings for the second quarter are also tracking 5% year-over-year growth following the first week of results, per Bank of America. The major averages could receive a boost in the week ahead if Alphabet and Tesla — the first of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies set to report — manage to beat estimates. The megacaps are expected to be a major driver of earnings growth during the second-quarter earnings season. FactSet’s John Butters expects the Magnificent Seven will post earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies are seen posting growth of just 3.4%. “We’re at an all time high for the [S&P 500] right at the beginning of earnings season,” said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial, adding, “If we can get through this earnings season with not too many major failures, I think that is really, really important at this point, if we want to continue this upward momentum that we have in the market.” On the economic front, the June reading for leading indicators, which are predictive metrics for the overall market and economy, is scheduled for release on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy and considered the latest trade developments. The 10-year Treasury yield was more than 6 basis points lower at 4.368%. The 2-year yield was more than 2 basis points lower at 3.85%. The 30-year yield was also more than 6 basis points lower at 4.933%. Asia-Pacific markets mostly ended Thursday higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% to close at 24,994.14, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index increased by 0.67% to 4,085.61. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.71% to close at 3,210.81, while the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.12% to 821.69. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark fell 1.02% to end the day at 8,668.20. Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday, with the latest European sanctions on Russian oil expected to have minimal impact on supplies while U.S. tariffs ensure demand concerns remain. Brent crude futures dropped 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.08 a barrel by 1100 GMT after settling 0.35% down on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased by 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.28 after a 0.3% decline in the previous session. Gold prices firmed on Monday, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar, while investors sought clarity on trade developments ahead of an August 1 U.S. tariff deadline. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,369.17 per ounce by 1114 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,376.30. “The modest support…comes from a weaker U.S. dollar. With the tariff August 1 deadline coming closer, the market focus will be if trade deals are announced, or tariffs are implemented,” said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The dollar eased 0.3% against a basket of other major currencies (.DXY), making gold less expensive for their holders.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
JPMorgan: “The unassuming hurdle rate suggests beats at headline level for Q2, but this is in the backdrop of strong recent equity rally, so there could be disappointments if earnings do not deliver, or if the guidances are mixed.”
Evercore ISI: “AI is different this time. What is not is the cycle of Greed and Fear that is a part of every market cycle. FOMO, once it appears, doesn’t move stocks in a straight line, at least not in the beginning. There is volatility, particularly around the Seasonally challenging time of late July into Aug and Sept – selloffs in 1999 prior to the Dotcom Bubble accelerating and Fall 2021 into the Jan 2022 peak are historical examples. A similar near term correction (7-15%) within the prevailing Structural Bull Market is EVR ISI Strategy’s base case. At 24.7x EPS, stocks have overdiscounted the potential for continued good news.”
Citi: “This earnings season is critical, in our view. The growth trajectory, or cyclical driver of the broadening trade, has been in question for some time amidst the Small/Mid Cap earnings growth malaise. Whether good results and some confidence in back half numbers can reasonably hold, especially post OBBBA, will be key to emerging from the double-dip EPS growth recession down cap, in our view. A growth inflection could also be a trigger to closing the widening valuation gap to the S&P 500.”
Goldman Sachs: Continued USD weakness should support the outperformance of firms with high international sales exposure over stocks with more domestic-facing sales, all else equal.
The recent pattern of relative outperformance of international facing stocks is broadly consistent with previous episodes of dollar weakness. However, while our economists expect continued USD weakness, they also expect U.S. economic growth to outpace most other major economies in both 2025 and 2026, which should provide a relative tailwind to domestic-facing firms. In addition, further trade conflict escalation would create the largest risk for companies with elevated international sales exposure.”