Stock futures were little changed Wednesday as traders prepared for a much-anticipated monetary policy decision and an even more important policy outlook from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell marginally. Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 14 points, or 0.03%. Nvidia shares dipped more than 1.3% in the premarket after The Financial Times reported, citing sources, that China has banned tech companies in the country from buying Nvidia’s chips. Traders almost universally expect the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates on Wednesday, a move that could boost the U.S. economy amid signs the labor market is slowing even as inflation stays stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Policymakers will also give more insight into their outlook for rates over the next year or so in the closely-watched “dot plot” grid that accompanies their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Investors will also watch for any policy dissents from Fed policymakers after two such disagreements at the last meeting in July. Traders have priced in a 96% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter percentage point, and just 4% odds that the market will get a half point reduction Wednesday, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Paul McCulley, former chief economist at Pimco, told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Tuesday that a more conservative quarter-point rate cut is the most likely outcome. “Quite frankly, I don’t know how I would explain [a 50 basis point cut] in the current context without saying the labor market really is worrying me intensely, and I don’t think that’s the message that Chair Powell wants to communicate — at least not now,” McCulley said. Stocks are coming off of a lackluster trading session, where major U.S. indexes ended little changed. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and monetary policy outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield was down less than one basis point at 4.02%, and the 2-year Treasury yield also dipped less than one basis point to 3.507%, Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury was little changed at 4.639%. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 surpassed the 45,000 mark for the first time, leading gains in Asia-Pacific markets Monday, after President Donald Trump said that the U.S.-China trade negotiations in Spain were progressing well. The benchmark added 0.3% to close at 44,902.27. Japan’s Topix gained 0.25% to end the trading day at 3,168.36 after crossing an all-time high. South Korea’s Kospi continued to notch a fresh record for the second day, closing 1.24% higher at 3,449.62, after the government reversed its plan to hike capital gains tax on stocks on Monday. Meanwhile, the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.85% to 851.84. Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 climbed 0.28% to 8,877.7. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reversed course to decline 0.13%, and the mainland’s CSI 300 retreated 0.21% to 4,523.34. Oil prices eased on Wednesday, after rising more than 1% in the previous session, though ongoing geopolitical jitters provided a floor for the market, with traders eyeing an expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day. Brent crude futures were down 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 43 cents, also around 0.7%, to $64.09 a barrel. The benchmarks settled more than 1% higher in the last trading session due to concerns that Russian supplies may be disrupted by Ukrainian attacks. Gold retreated on Wednesday from a record-high level touched in the previous session, as investors locked in profits and a firmer dollar weighed on prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,663.73 per ounce after hitting a record high of $3,702.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also dropped 0.7% to $3,700. The dollar edged 0.2% higher after dropping to a more than two-month low on Tuesday.
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