U.S. stock futures fell Wednesday as Wall Street got ready to close out a bumper year for equities. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 35 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each dipped 0.1% as well. Stocks are headed for their fourth-straight losing session, although the declines have been mild and the S&P 500 is still set to lock in a 17% gain for the year, its third straight double-digit annual gain. The Nasdaq Composite has ridden AI enthusiasm to a 21% advance. The Dow is up 13% for 2025, hindered a bit by its lack of tech representation in the 30-stock average. That marks an impressive recovery from the rout seen in early April following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announcement. The S&P 500 was even on the cusp of closing in bear market territory at one point, dropping almost 19% from its February high and closing below 5,000 for the first time since April 2024. Still, the recent declines are somewhat worrisome given that the final five trading days of the year, and the first two of the next, are typically a seasonally rewarding stretch — often referred to as the “Santa Claus” rally — that usually gives stocks one last push toward year-end. The recent profit-taking could also foreshadow some of the volatility ahead. Strategists surveyed by CNBC expect the S&P 500 could post yet another double-digit advance in 2026, but many worry stocks could spend much of the year range-bound as corporate earnings growth catches up to lofty multiples. “As we look towards next year, we’re expecting a little bit more volatility,” Meghan Shue, head of investment strategy and portfolio construction at Wilmington Trust, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “I think this is a healthy sort of churn as we reset for the next leg of the bull market, which we expect to continue, outside of what we still have as a decently high recession risk,” Shue added. Artificial intelligence has been the defining force driving the market for the last three years. In 2023, the S&P 500 surged 24%, after the debut of ChatGPT the prior year unleashed a fervor around the companies most likely to benefit from a technological revolution that harkens back to the dawn of the internet. In 2024, the broad market index rallied another 23%. The AI narrative fractured somewhat this year, as the rally started to broaden out to other sectors, and even performance among the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks bifurcated. Alphabet was the big winner among the megacaps, up more than 65% year to date, as investors bet the search giant could edge out OpenAI. Amazon was the laggard, gaining roughly 6%. What’s more, many asset classes outside the megacaps started to outperform. Commodities had an especially good year, with gold up more than 66%, and silver higher by more than 165%. As of Tuesday’s close, stocks were also on pace to close out a winning month. The Dow is up 1.4% in December, on pace for its eighth winning month in a row, the first such streak going back to 2018. The S&P 500 is up 0.7%, also on track for an eight month win streak. The Nasdaq is higher by 0.2%, heading for its eighth positive month in nine. The U.S. 10-year Treasury was slightly lower on Wednesday as investors await economic data and take stock ahead of the New Year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped by 2 basis points to 4.108%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also last seen more than 1 basis point lower at 3.442%. Asia-Pacific markets fell on the holiday-shortened and final trading day of the year. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 inched 0.03% lower to close at 8,714.3. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.87% to close at 25,630.54, while the mainland CSI 300 was 0.44% lower. China’s economy ended the year on a slightly less gloomy note, as factory activity expanded in December for the first time since March, beating expectations, according to official data released Wednesday. Japan and South Korea are shut for the day. Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday and are set to fall more than 15% over the course of 2025, as oversupply concerns grew in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs and OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Brent crude futures, down nearly 18% – the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020 – are on track for a third straight year of losses, their longest-ever losing streak. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was headed for a 19% annual decline. BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying expects Brent to dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2026 as supply growth is expected to normalise while demand stays flat. Precious metals slipped across the board on Wednesday, but were on course for blockbuster annual gains, as silver and platinum prices more than doubled and gold’s run of record highs led to its strongest yearly performance in more than 40 years. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,326.55 per ounce to a more than two-week low. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 1.1% to $4,339.30/oz. Gold prices have skyrocketed about 65% this year, their steepest annual rise since 1979, with the rally reflecting the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts and expectations of further monetary easing, geopolitical strains, heavy central bank buying, and robust ETF inflows. Spot silver lost 5.8% to $72.02 per ounce on Wednesday after hitting a record high of $83.62 on Monday. Silver has gained more than 145% year-to-date, far outpacing gold, and poised for its best year ever. The rally has been driven by supply shortages, low inventories, rising industrial and investor appetite, and its recent designation as a critical mineral in the United States.
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