S&P 500 futures climbed higher Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Futures tied to the broad market index added 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.6%. Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 115 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 sits just 0.65% from a new record heading into Tuesday’s session. Microsoft rose 2% after the tech giant hiked its quarterly dividend by 10.7% to 83 cents per share. The company also approved a $60 billion buyback program. Intel shares popped about 7% in premarket trading after the company said it plans to make its foundry business a subsidiary. The Biden administration also awarded the company up to $3 billion in funding through the Chips Act. The latest retail sales data indicated solid consumer health ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday. Retail sales rose 0.1% in August versus economists’ estimates for a 0.2% decline, according to Dow Jones. Excluding autos, the number also came in at a 0.1% increase, which slightly missed the 0.2% consensus forecast. Wall Street is on standby for the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut, a move that could help boost earnings growth for companies following a backdrop of steep borrowing costs and high inflation. The Fed first embarked on its aggressive hiking campaign in March 2022. While investors expect a cut Wednesday, the market is divided on the size of the potential reduction. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the central bank eases rates by 50 basis points, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool. That’s up from a roughly 47% chance Friday. “The decision is complicated by conflicting signals of solid economic activity but a weakening labor market,” said Principal Asset Management’s Seema Shah. “Rarely have market expectations been so torn, so close to a [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.” While a 50 basis point cut isn’t out of the question, the chief global strategist thinks that the Fed should take a more cautious approach to cutting and ease rates by 25 basis points. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December. One basis point equals 0.01%. Wall Street is coming off a mixed trading session. The 30-stock Dow rose more than 228 points, or 0.55%, to close at a record high, while the S&P 500 added 0.13%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.52% as Apple and prominent chip stocks declined. The moves come after the market recorded its best trading week of 2024 in the prior week as stocks climbed higher in anticipation of forthcoming rate cuts. Treasury yields were steady after strong retail sales data on Tuesday and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was near flat at 3.618%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last nearly 3 basis points higher at 3.586%. Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed on Tuesday with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping as much as 2% before paring some losses, as investors awaited for the Federal Reserve to kick off its monetary loosening cycle. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.03% lower at 36,203.22. The broad-based Topix fell 0.6% to end at 2,555.76. The stocks fell as the yen strengthened for a sixth straight session, last at 140.65 against the dollar. It had appreciated to 139.58 yen overnight, its strongest level since July 2023. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.37% as of its final hour of trade. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.24% to close at 8,140.9. South Korea, mainland China and Taiwan’s markets were closed for a holiday. U.S. crude oil traded above $70 per barrel on Tuesday, as production in the Gulf of Mexico is still in recovery mode after Hurricane Francine. More than 200,000 barrels per day remained offline in the Gulf as of Monday, according to Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online immediately after checks have been completed, according to the agency. West Texas Intermediate October contract: $70.4 per barrel, up 32 cents, or 0.5%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is down about 2%. Brent November contract: $72.93 per barrel, up 18 cents, or about 0.3%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 5%. Gold prices eased on Tuesday after scaling an all-time high, while all eyes were on the U.S. interest rate decision that traders are betting may bring an outsized cut. Spot gold fell 0.1% at $2,580.18 per ounce after scaling an all-time high of $2,589.59 on Monday. U.S. gold futures were trading flat at $2,607.6 after hitting a record peak of $2,617.4 in the previous session.
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