U.S. stock market index futures were little changed Monday as investors weighed a potential slowdown, or pause, from the Federal Reserve and braced for a busy earnings week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures inched 0.03% higher, while Nasdaq 100 rose 0.13%. On Friday, the major averages rallied to finish the week after briefly losing the momentum of the January rally. The Nasdaq posted a slight gain for the week. However, the Dow and S&P each logged losing own weeks. All of the major averages remain in the green for the month. The Nasdaq is leading the others with a 6.44% year-to-date gain. Investors have been weighing the possibility that the Fed is getting ready to slow the pace of its inflation-fighting rate hikes after economic data last week showed a decline in wholesale prices and retail sales. On Friday, investors absorbed comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller favoring a quarter percentage point rate increase at the next meeting. A Wall Street Journal report Sunday, meanwhile, raised the possibility of a spring pause to rate increases — a sign that the Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking campaign. “With investors growing more confident on the inflation side, it is clear they are now looking beyond the current hiking cycle, to an eventual pause and potentially even cuts down the line,” wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients Monday. “But with investors now priced for good news on inflation, the risk is that if inflation does prove more persistent, then we could be in another bear market rally just as we saw last summer.” Markets have priced in a 99.7% chance of a 25-basis point hike, according to CME Group data, which would bring the interest rate to a targeted range of 4.5%-4.75%. No speeches from Fed officials are on the calendar ahead of the central bank policy meeting on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. Investors, however, will monitor another batch of economic data, including the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index, due out Friday. In the meantime, earnings reports could keep the market on edge, with about 40% of the Dow scheduled to release their latest financial results and offer more insight into how companies are weathering inflation and interest rates. Some of the big names on deck include Microsoft, IBM, Tesla, Visa and Mastercard. Shares were higher in Asia on Monday, but most markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, with markets in Shanghai shut for the whole week. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 1.1% to 26,852.85 and the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney edged 0.1% higher, to 7,456.90. The gains followed a rally Friday for tech stocks that countered worries about the weakening U.S. economy. Oil prices rose on Monday, extending last week’s gains on the back of a stronger outlook due to an expected economic recovery in top oil importer China this year. Brent crude was up 72 cents, or 0.8%, to $88.35, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude rose 61 cents, or 0.8%, to $82.25 a barrel. Last week Brent rose 2.8%, while the U.S. benchmark logged a 1.8% gain. Gold prices were flat on Monday as investors positioned for U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy, with a softer dollar cushioning further losses in bullion. Spot gold fell less than 0.1% to $1,926.52 per ounce. It climbed to its highest since April 2022 on Friday. U.S. gold futures also eased marginally to $1,927.80. The dollar index was down 0.2%, making greenback-priced gold attractive for buyers holding other currencies.
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