Stock futures fell on Monday after the U.S. and Iran traded fire for the first time in a month. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded 169 points, or 0.3%, lower. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.2%. On Sunday, U.S. Central Command confirmed to MS NOW that the U.S. struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island. Sunday’s attack was the first publicly acknowledged U.S. strike on Iranian positions since late July, with Iranian state media reporting that Tehran had attacked U.S. bases in Jordan in retaliation. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have contributed to choppy trading in August, but Wall Street is currently on track for a month of broad gains, led by the tech sector. The Dow is up 2.1% month-to-date, putting the index on track for its fifth consecutive monthly advance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were headed for their first one-month increases since May, up about 3% and 4%, respectively. Both the S&P 500 and Dow also reached all-time highs earlier in August. Tech led the charge this month, with artificial intelligence-linked stocks outperforming. The S&P 500 tech sector is up nearly 6% for the month. Nvidia has climbed more than 8%, while Microsoft and Micron Technology advanced 10% and 13%, respectively. To be sure, August has still been a turbulent month, as inflation fears sent Treasury yields to multi-year highs. The Treasury Department tried to stem the rout by saying it would increase debt repurchases, but yields along the long end of the curve remain elevated. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also said Friday he’s worried about inflation, noting that, “while this summer’s [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” “Although we doubt this was intended to foreshadow September’s tightening given his distaste for signaling, his hawkish discussion makes a 25bp September hike more likely than not. Given his inflation metrics, our baseline calls for another in December,” wrote Barclays economist Jonathan Millar in a note. Investors will get more insight into the state of the economy this week, with the August jobs report due Friday morning. Monthly manufacturing and services sector data is also on deck. Short-term government borrowing costs in various markets reached multi-year highs on Monday, as fresh U.S.-Iran combat fueled inflation fears. The resumption of hostilities added to fears around inflation and interest rate hikes that were stoked by an unexpectedly hawkish speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The yield on Japan’s 2-year government bond touched a 31-year high on Monday, while Germany’s 2-year bund yield was trading at its highest level since July 2024. France’s 2-year government bond yield rose to its highest since April 2024. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.14%, while South Korea’s Kospi reversed losses to close 0.46% higher. Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.35%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.18% to 9,076. Oil prices jumped after the hostilities resumed. U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil traded more than 3% higher at above $86 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude oil futures were up more than 3% at above $91 a barrel. Gold slipped on Monday as renewed Middle East attacks stoked inflation worries, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair boosted expectations for a September rate hike, though bullion remained on track for its biggest monthly gain since January. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,448.19 per ounce, having touched its lowest level since August 19 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.7% to $4,498.90. Bullion declined over 3% on Friday, in its biggest one-day fall since June 10, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at the Jackson Hole symposium that the U.S. central bank would “have work to do” if policymakers were not confident inflation was returning to its 2% target.
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