After Friday’s big selloff as President Trump fired back at China’s tightening of rare earths export curbs with higher tariffs, investors will be watching closely for the latest trade policy developments. An ongoing federal government shutdown may delay the release of several economic reports, but investors can look forward to a full slate of corporate earnings from big banks and mainstays in the semiconductor industry. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and American Express are on the list of major financial firms set to report this week, while reports from TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines will also be in focus.
Without a resolution to the budget dispute, the government shutdown will enter its third week, likely delaying the release of data on wholesale inflation, retail sales, housing starts, and jobless claims. Homebuilder confidence and small business optimism surveys are still scheduled, and several Federal Reserve speakers are expected to deliver remarks, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The bond market is closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday (observed in some places as Indigenous Peoples Day), while major stock exchanges are open. The Federal Reserve system, major financial institutions, and many federal, state, and local government offices will be closed on Monday.
Big Banks, Chipmaking Stalwarts to Highlight Corporate Earnings This Week
This week is set to bring third-quarter updates from some of the world’s biggest banks and top financial institutions, starting with Tuesday’s release from JPMorgan Chase. The world’s largest bank by market capitalization has reported better-than-expected revenue in the year’s first two quarters, even as sales declined and net interest income came up short in its most recent report amid CEO Jamie Dimon’s warnings about “turbulence” in the economy. Others expected to release quarterly financials Tuesday include Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and CitiGroup. Reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are due to follow Wednesday, while Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, and U.S. Bancorp are scheduled for Thursday. Earnings from American Express, Truist Financial, and State Street are slated for Friday.
The world’s largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, is set to report its results Thursday, after growing its revenue by 40% in the first half of 2025 on strong sales of AI chips. Chipmaking equipment maker ASML looks to report Wednesday after the Dutch firm raised worries about future growth amid tariff pressures. Also this week, cloud computing giant Oracle will host a three-day AI World conference beginning on Monday, and customer relationship management software firm Salesforce’s Dreamforce event starts Tuesday.
Shutdown Likely to Extend Data Release Blackout
With the federal government shutdown heading into its third week, the blackout on economic data releases is likely to continue. The Thursday reports on U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims and Friday’s update on housing starts could be delayed by the shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week it plans to release on Oct. 24 the Consumer Price Index inflation report for September that was originally scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, coming as the central bank is set to release its Beige Book economic update on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell is due to give an economic update on Tuesday, with remarks also expected this week from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Some data releases are still expected, including a survey of small business optimism on Tuesday and report on homebuilder confidence on Thursday.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
Morgan Stanley: “The set-up for a correction within this new bull market was in place given elevated positioning, valuation anxiety, and seasonals. Unexpected trade escalation provided the catalyst. If we don’t see near-term de-escalation, we think a larger than expected correction is likely.”
Evercore ISI: “Stocks were headed into 3Q25 earnings season with improved sentiment vs. the first two quarters of the year, when the mood was cautious in 2Q and dismal in 1Q.”
“Optimism has been underpinned by a stable economy, the Fed cutting “Because It Can”, revived Capital Markets Activity, and partnership and investment tie up announcements driving the structural AI theme. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 at 25.6x trailing P/E is “priced near perfection”. All the more so with last Friday’s U.S./China escalation, stirring volatility and stock correlations from “complacent” low levels. High Bars mean stock and Index reactions to earnings are likely to be varied and violent.”
RBC Capital Markets: “One thing that’s clear to us coming into 3Q25 reporting season is that the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500 and the Tech sector have been carrying a heavy earnings burden for the S&P 500, and if earnings sentiment for these parts of the U.S. equity market fade, we think it will be difficult for the S&P 500 to avoid a near-term pullback.
BTIG: “It already appears that China rhetoric is being backtracked, and with the SPX nearing its 50 DMA for the first time in six-months, a reflex bounce should not be surprising. There is enough damage below the surface, however, to suggest this is the start of a deeper pullback, at least towards the 6350-6400 zone, and therefore we would fade any relief rally back towards 6650-6700.”